The remainder believe the CBN will keep a firm grip on the currency until 2022 or 2023.
The CBN has instituted several policies to defend the naira, including restricting importers’ access to dollars and stepping up the sale of high-yielding debt to attract inflows from portfolio investors.
The CBN has also backed the government’s closure of some land borders, designed to stop smuggling.
Most respondents say Nigeria cannot keep defending and sustaining naira’s stability beyond next year.
All but four of the survey participants said the naira is more than 10 per cent overvalued against the dollar.
Two respondents said it was at least 20 per cent too strong.
The currency has traded around 360 to 365 per dollar since its last devaluation in 2017.
While the CBN says the exchange rate is determined by the market, it is much less volatile than other oil currencies, such as the Russian ruble and Kazakh tenge.
The respondents were evenly split on the size of the devaluation, with nine predicting the naira will drop 10 per cent or less and the same number saying it would be marked down by 10 per cent to 20 per cent.
Only one forecasted a fall of more than 20 per cent.
Most survey participants, who included money managers, analysts and economists based in Nigeria and abroad, asked for their answers to remain anonymous.
Since June, Nigeria’s reserves have decreased by 17 per cent to $37.4 billion, the lowest in more than two years.
The slide has accelerated since the coronavirus outbreak in China rocked global markets and sent Brent crude prices down to around $55 a barrel.
Last week, reserves in Africa’s biggest oil producer fell by $350 million, the most on a weekly basis since October.
All but three of the respondents said reserves would have to hit $30 billion before the CBN considers letting the currency fall, which is in line with what Governor Godwin Emefiele told investors last year.
Emefiele had vowed to keep the naira steady, saying in late November that the slide in reserves was not a cause for concern.
“In 2016 we had reserves as low as $23 billion and we survived,” central bank spokesman, Isaac Okorafor, said after the release of the survey.
“We have proved them wrong before and we will do it again,” he told Bloomberg.
The CBN and FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange, a Lagos-based platform that oversees naira transactions, introduced new naira futures contracts of up to five years.
The aim is to attract more foreign investment by helping investors hedge their currency exposure, Tumi Sekoni, FMDQ managing director, said.
